Cirium’s latest Fleet Forecast predicts the delivery of 45,900 new passenger, freighter, and turboprop aircraft between 2024 and 2043, valued at $3.3 trillion. This reflects airlines’ commitment to fleet modernization and sustainable aviation.
Key Highlights:
- Fleet Recovery: Active aircraft now exceed pre-pandemic levels, driven by single-aisle growth (+13%).
- Supply Chain Challenges: A 5% drop in deliveries is expected between 2024-2027 due to component shortages.
- Passenger Aircraft Lead: 98% of new aircraft will be passenger planes, with ASK growth projected at 4.4% annually.
- Freighter Demand: 3,500 new freighters, with 70% coming from passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions.
- OEM Dominance: Airbus and Boeing will deliver 84% of new aircraft, rising to 90% by 2043, while COMAC takes a 6% share.
- Asia’s Growth: The region will account for 45% of deliveries, with China alone contributing nearly 20%.
Future Outlook
Single-aisle aircraft will drive growth, projected at 3.9% annually, outpacing twin-aisles at 3.3%. Sustainability remains a challenge, with the industry focusing on fuel-efficient models and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
Despite supply chain disruptions, the long-term aviation outlook remains strong, offering significant opportunities for airlines, manufacturers, and investors.